UK new car and van outlook
The latest market outlook for the new car and light commercial vehicle markets. The outlook is revised quarterly in January, April, July and October.
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The outlook is set against a subdued and uncertain economic outlook, with consumer and business confidence under-pressure from the cost of living crisis, tax rises and now geopolitical shocks such as Trump’s tariffs. The Government has followed through with a series of motoring tax changes which will adversely impact the vehicle markets, but some improvements in the flexibilities of the ZEV Mandate reflect the challenge of the transition to EVs at this point in time. The outlook for cars has been raised up this year, but down next. For BEVs we have trimmed the market share for cars, but cut it more deeply for LCVs. The outlook is typically revised quarterly in January, April, July and October.
LCVs = light commercial vehicles to 3.5t gvw. Fuel type split is within the total market data. Diesel and petrol include mild hybrids. BEV = Battery electric vehicle; PHEV = Plug-in hybrid electric vehicle; HEV = Hybrid electric vehicles.
SMMT outlook for 2025 to 2026 – as at April 2025
2025
- Car registrations expected to now rise 0.6% to 1.964 million units (we said fall to 1.953mn in Jan)
- BEV registrations are expected to rise 21.0% to push share to 23.5% (we said 23.7% share in Jan)
- PHEV market is anticipated to rise 17.8%, pushing market share to 10.0%
- HEV market share is expected to reach 15.0%, after a 12.4% rise in volumes
- Diesel market share is anticipated to decline to 5.3% after a -15.6% fall in volumes
- Petrol market is expected to decline -10.9%, reducing market share to 46.2%
- LCV market outlook is for a -4.3% decline to 337,000 units (down from 348,000 view in Jan)
- LCV BEV share is expected to reach 9.1% (we said 9.6% in Jan), with volumes up 48.7%
2026
- Car market expected to rise 1.4% to 1.992 million units (we said 2.013mn in Jan)
- BEV market share anticipated to reach 28.0% (we said 28.3% in Jan), with volumes up 20.5%
- PHEV market is expected to grow 17.4% to push market share to 11.6%
- HEV market outlook is for 11.8% growth to take market share to 16.5%
- Diesel market share is anticipated to decline by further -15.0%, cutting market share to 4.4%
- Petrol market outlook is for a -13.2% volume fall, reducing market share to 39.5%
- LCV market is expected to grow 3.4% to 348,000 units (a 8,000 cut on our Jan view)
- BEV market share is expected to reach 13.3% (down from our Jan view of 15.2%), after 51.9% growth
Note: outlooks rounded to nearest 1,000 units (% changes based on the exact outlook). Reasonable care has been taken in preparing this information. It is not an exclusive aid for market analysis. Other sources and market intelligence should be reviewed.
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